AMB Property Corporation®
The report analyzes the relationship between rent growth and market fundamentals. Specifically, it examines current U.S. industrial rents, which are down 20-30% from their 2008 peak and below levels that support new construction. The leading indicators of customer demand suggest that market fundamentals are improving and that rent levels will return to more normalized levels.
"Our research concludes that improving economic conditions will fuel a recovery in demand for industrial real estate and therefore raise rents to more sustainable levels. Currently, the consensus forecast for global trade and production suggests that more than 500 million square feet of demand could be realized in the next few years, driving the national availability rate to equilibrium in 2012," said David Twist, AMB's vice president, Research.
Summary of Findings: -- While a number of industrial developments have been put on hold during the economic downturn, new construction will resume when rents are at or nearing replacement-cost-justified rents - the rents required to finance and pay for the profitable construction of a new building. -- The relationship between industrial space availability and the change in market rent over several cycles is a negative correlation of 0.89, indicating that when supply of available space is high, rent growth is muted and conversely when supply is tight, rents increase. -- Production, trade and inventories are the principal drivers of demand for industrial real estate, together explaining more than 80% of the variation in historical demand. As such, the respective forecasts for these leading indicators can be used to estimate the future magnitude and timing of demand for industrial real estate. -- The leading indicators of demand for industrial real estate are rebounding and the outlook for 2010 and beyond are very strong. Consensus forecast for global trade and production suggests that more then 500 million square feet of demand could be realized globally in the next three years, driving the availability rate to equilibrium levels in 2012.
AMB's research reports can be downloaded from the company's website at www.amb.com/global_capabilities/research.html.
AMB Property Corporation.® Local partner to global trade.(TM)
AMB Property Corporation® is a leading owner, operator and developer of global industrial real estate, focused on major hub and gateway distribution markets in the Americas, Europe and Asia. As of December 31, 2009, AMB owned, or had investments in, on a consolidated basis or through unconsolidated joint ventures, properties and development projects expected to total approximately 155.1 million square feet (14.4 million square meters) in 47 markets within 14 countries. AMB invests in properties located predominantly in the infill submarkets of its targeted markets. The company's portfolio comprises High Throughput Distribution® facilities--industrial properties built for speed and located near airports, seaports and ground transportation systems.
AMB's press releases are available on the company website at www.amb.com or by contacting the Investor Relations department at +1 415 394 9000.
Some of the information included in this press release contains forward-looking statements, such as those related to improving market fundamentals, recovery in demand for industrial real estate, rent growth to sustainable and normalized levels, forecasts for global trade and production and demand, national availability rates, new construction timing, relationship between industrial space availability and market rent and production, trade and inventories as leading indicators of demand, which are made pursuant to the safe-harbor provisions of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. Because these forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, there are important factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements, and you should not rely on the forward-looking statements as predictions of future events. The events or circumstances reflected in forward-looking statements might not occur. You can identify forward-looking statements by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "believes," "expects," "may," "will," "should," "seeks," "approximately," "intends," "plans," "pro forma," "estimates" or "anticipates" or the negative of these words and phrases or similar words or phrases. You can also identify forward-looking statements by discussions of strategy, plans or intentions. Forward-looking statements are necessarily dependent on assumptions, data or methods that may be incorrect or imprecise and we may not be able to realize them. We caution you not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which reflect our analysis only and speak only as of the date of this report or the dates indicated in the statements. We assume no obligation to update or supplement forward-looking statements. The following factors, among others, could cause actual results and future events to differ materially from those set forth or contemplated in the forward-looking statements: changes in general economic conditions in California, the U.S. or globally (including financial market fluctuations), global trade or in the real estate sector (including risks relating to decreasing real estate valuations and impairment charges); risks associated with using debt to fund the company's business activities, including refinancing and interest rate risks (including inflation risks); the company's failure to obtain, renew, or extend necessary financing or access the debt or equity markets; the company's failure to maintain its current credit agency ratings or comply with its debt covenants; risks related to the company's obligations in the event of certain defaults under co-investment venture and other debt; risks associated with equity and debt securities financings and issuances (including the risk of dilution); defaults on or non-renewal of leases by customers or renewal at lower than expected rent or failure to lease at all or on expected terms; difficulties in identifying properties, portfolios of properties, or interests in real-estate related entities or platforms to acquire and in effecting acquisitions on advantageous terms and the failure of acquisitions to perform as the company expects; unknown liabilities acquired in connection with the acquired properties, portfolios of properties, or interests in real-estate related entities; the company's failure to successfully integrate acquired properties and operations; risks and uncertainties affecting property development, redevelopment and value-added conversion (including construction delays, cost overruns, the company's inability to obtain necessary permits and financing, the company's inability to lease properties at all or at favorable rents and terms, and public opposition to these activities); the company's failure to set up additional funds, attract additional investment in existing funds or to contribute properties to its co-investment ventures due to such factors as its inability to acquire, develop, or lease properties that meet the investment criteria of such ventures, or the co-investment ventures' inability to access debt and equity capital to pay for property contributions or their allocation of available capital to cover other capital requirements; risks and uncertainties relating to the disposition of properties to third parties and the company's ability to effect such transactions on advantageous terms and to timely reinvest proceeds from any such dispositions; risks of doing business internationally and global expansion, including unfamiliarity with the new markets and currency and hedging risks; risks of changing personnel and roles; risks related to suspending, reducing or changing the company's dividends; losses in excess of the company's insurance coverage; changes in local, state and federal laws and regulatory requirements, including changes in real estate, tax and zoning laws; increases in real property tax rates; risks associated with the company's tax structuring; increases in interest rates and operating costs or greater than expected capital expenditures; environmental uncertainties; risks related to natural disasters; and our failure to qualify and maintain our status as a real estate investment trust. Our success also depends upon economic trends generally, various market conditions and fluctuations and those other risk factors discussed under the heading "Risk Factors" and elsewhere in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2009.
First Call Analyst: Robinson, Victoria
FCMN Contact: [email protected]
SOURCE: AMB Property Corporation
CONTACT: Tracy A. Ward, Vice President, IR & Corporate Communications,
Web Site: http://www.amb.com/